US To End Iran War Soon

Risk sentiment is rebounding firmly midweek on the back of comments from President Trump yesterday suggesting that the war in Iran could be over within two -three weeks. Speaking yesterday Trump noted that the US was satisfied that regime change had taken place in Iran as a result of the US military operation there and said that he wasn’t concerned with high oil prices as prices would return to normal once the US pulls out of the area within two to three weeks. Commenting on negotiations Trump said that it was still possible for the two sides to agree a deal but said that it was no longer necessary with Trump happy to call an end to the war when the US is satisfied that Iran’s nuclear capability has been destroyed.

Stocks Surging Higher

Stock prices have risen sharply in response to the news with the S&P futures surging higher by more than 3% yesterday, now up almost 4% off the week’s lows. With the Dollar reversing heavily lower and oil prices falling too, the near-term outlook is bullish for stocks. Should news flow and commentary from the US administration remain geared towards the US ending the war, risk sentiment has room to improve further. The clear risk is that we see any fresh escalation in the conflict or a shift in tone from Trump towards prolonging operation in Iran which would see risks sentiment weakening once again.

Technical Views

ES

The rebound in stock prices has seen the ES breaking back above the 6,505.25 level with price now testing back above 6,587.50 also. This is a key pivot for the market with the broader bullish outlook restored while price holds above this level. The bear trend line from Feb highs will be the initial test for bulls with 6,811.25 the higher level to note.